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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.