Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
